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Abstract

The article concerns safety of power supply for the final consumers, especially its two comprising elements, which are generation adequacy and distribution system reliability. Generation adequacy has been defined with Loss of Load Probability (LOLP), Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) and Energy Not Supplied (ENS) indices. Conclusions from generation adequacy forecast prepared by ENSTO-E for Poland compared with other European countries for the years 2020 and 2025 have been discussed along with the resulting threats. Interruptions in energy supply have been characterised by power discontinuity indicator SAIDI. Finally, a reliability and adequacy analysis have been performed for different scenarios of the Polish power system operation in order to assess possibilities of using distributed generation as a backup power source. Based on a simulation model created using the DIgSILENT Power Factory software, the reliability and adequacy calculations have been performed with the probabilistic non-sequential Monte Carlo method and they are followed by a discussion of the obtained results.
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