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Abstract

The paper proposes a list of five „stylized facts”, regarded as the main trends with respect to the development of the global economy in the 20th c. The author’s main purpose is to answer the question whether, in the light of the contemporary growth theory and demographic forecasts, these trends are likely to continue unchanged also in the 21st c. Taking into account this theory and those forecasts, the paper offers forecasts of the average GDP per capita for both the countries of the Technology Frontier Area (TFA) and the catching-up countries. By these forecasts, the strong divergence trend of the last two centuries will be replaced by a strong convergence trend during the 21st c. Moreover, the global rate of growth of the per capita GDP will continue to be high in the first half of the current century, but strongly declining in the second half.
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Abstract

In the Accession Treaty of 16 April 2003, Poland agreed to adopt euro as its national currency, but the date of this adoption was not specified. The financial crisis in several countries of the Eurozone, in response to the world financial crisis in 2008, reduced drastically the public support in Poland for the replacement of the zloty by the euro. This article has two objectives. One is to assess the net costs, economic and political, for Poland remaining long outside the Eurozone. In this assessment the analysis includes also two official reports by National Bank of Poland, the country’s central bank, published in 2009 and 2014. The other objective is to note and assess the reforms which have been undertaken by member states of the Eurozone in response to this crisis, in order to maintain and enhance financial stability and economic effectiveness of the rules adopted at the start of the Eurozone on 1 January 1999. The author suggests to consider and adopt additional reforms. Discussed is also the USA experience with its own monetary union, and the potential influence on policy developments in the EU of increasing global competitive pressures from China and India.
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