The aim of the article is to present the issue of risk and related management methods, with a particular emphasis on the conditions of investment in energy infrastructure. The work consists of two main parts; the first one is the theoretical analysis of the issue, while the second discusses the application of analysis methods on the example of the investment in an agricultural biogas plant. The article presents the definitions related to the investment risk and its management, with a particular emphasis on the distinction between the risk and uncertainty. In addition, the main risk groups of the energy sector were subjected to an analysis. Then, the basic systematics and the division into particular risk groups were presented and the impact of the diversification of investments in the portfolio on the general level of risk was determined. The sources of uncertainty were discussed with particular attention to the categories of energy investments. The next part of the article presents risk mitigation methods that are part of the integrated risk management process and describes the basic methods supporting the quantification of the risk level and its effects – including the Monte Carlo (MC), Value at risk (VaR), and other methods. Finally, the paper presents the possible application of the methods presented in the theoretical part. The investment in agricultural biogas plant, due to the predictable operation accompanied by an extremely complicated and long-term investment process, was the subject of the analysis. An example of “large drawing analysis” was presented, followed by a Monte Carlo simulation and a VaR value determination. The presented study allows for determining the risk in the case of deviation of financial flows from the assumed values in particular periods and helps in determining the effects of such deviations. The conducted analysis indicates a low investment risk and suggests the ease of similar calculations for other investments.
The aim of the paper is to point out that the Monte Carlo simulation is an easy and flexible approach when it comes to forecasting risk of an asset portfolio. The case study presented in the paper illustrates the problem of forecasting risk arising from a portfolio of receivables denominated in different foreign currencies. Such a problem seems to be close to the real issue for enterprises offering products or services on several foreign markets. The changes in exchange rates are usually not normally distributed and, moreover, they are always interdependent. As shown in the paper, the Monte Carlo simulation allows for forecasting market risk under such circumstances.
The purpose of this article is to identify and assess environmental risks that may have the greatest impact on the future of humanity. They were divided into two basic groups, i.e. for natural processes and resources. In addition, climate change is described as different group. The authors decided, that a holistic approach to this issue is more desirable than dividing it into two above-mentioned groups. The comparison of various threats was possible due to the application of identical assessment criteria, such as: the harmfulness, rate of spread, scope and moment of occurrence of a given group of threats. Each of the listed criteria has been evaluated on a five-point scale, where 1 has the smallest and 5 the largest impact force. The obtained results show the leading importance of natural processes in maintaining the existing Earth system. In addition, the authors point to a greater risk of problems related to renewable resources than non-renewable one. As a result, it can be assumed that the current degradation of natural processes and excessive use of resources is likely to lead to the risk of global disasters.
This paper presents the innovative activity of enterprises as a process that is risky but necessary for the survival of a company in a competitive market, and as a way to maximize the long-term value for the owners. Risks and benefits were analysed, and the possible sources of added value in innovative projects were identified in the context of the capital market equilibrium and the budgeting of investments. Innovative projects become a source of added value for investors if the financial effects such as changes in the residual cash flow and higher growth rate outweigh the combined impact on the risk generated by two factors: increase of systematic risk and emerging specific risks.
The paper concerns the assessment of blackout hazards in the power systems. On the basis of statistical data from more than one hundred failures in power systems that affected the world in the last fifty years, the analysis was carried out regarding the number of people affected by a blackout, power losses in the system, duration of a failure and its direct causes. The paper also describes the methodology of risk analysis and vulnerability analysis of the extraordinary events occurrence in electrical power systems resulting in failures. The structure of risk analysis was based on the bow tie model, identifying threats, unwanted events, barriers and consequences of a system failure. Moreover, particular attention was drawn to the impact of the power reserve deficit in the Polish Power System in the coming years on the increase in the risk of a blackout failure.
Morocco is basically an agricultural country; almost 40% of the workforce is employed in this sector. Xylella fastidiosa is a xylem-inhabiting pathogen which can infect more than 300 plant species, although most host species are symptomless. Until relatively recently, X. fastidiosa was primarily limited to North and South America, but in 2013 a widespread epidemic of olive quick decline syndrome caused by this fastidious pathogen appeared in southeastern Italy, and later several cases of X. fastidiosa outbreaks have been reported in other European countries (France, Germany and Spain). Following these recently confirmed findings of X. fastidiosa in the European Union, this bacterium has become a serious threat to the Moroccan flora. The national phytosanitary authorities have adopted several measures to prevent the introduction of X. fastidiosa into the national territory by deciding, inter alia, to suspend importation of host plant species to the bacterium from infected areas. This paper presents the phytosanitary risk of this bacterium in Morocco.
In this publication, the strategy of land resources administration is presented on the basis of consideration of proposed result factors. The research methodology is based on the use of the PESTLE analytical model in conjunction with economic-mathematical modeling. The scientific novelty of the publication is developing the technology of administration of land resources on the basis of cadastral and other statistical information, which allows obtaining scientifically grounded solutions on the use of land resources. Considering the process of Land Resources Administration as a procedure based on making certain decisions when creating a management system which takes into account the internal and external relationships in this system, the postulate is about determining the degree of trust in this system, establishing economic, environmental and social risks when using it. To a certain extent, the process of Land Resources Administration is a prediction of the effective use of this natural potential in the future. It should be noted that the reliability of the forecast decision depends on the nature and parameters of uncertainties and the duration of their validity. Consequently, while making operational decisions on land resources for a short perspective, the forecasting is more reliable than for a long one. It becomes an effective mechanism of objective evaluation of the state of land resources and the prospects for their use. In this publication the main influencing decision making factors and the technological scheme of the solution of the problem are given.
System Dynamics is methodology for modeling and analyzing complex systems. Such systems can be characterized by interconnectedness and feedback. Applying risk assessment to the results of System Dynamics models is a challenge. Though in some cases the resulting time series data generated by a simulation may appear approximately random at a specific scale, there is often a high-degree of auto-correlation within the data series due to the deterministic nature of generation and feedback loops inherent in the system. This paper presents proposed Dynamic Risk Assessment Method (DRAM) that allows for the estimation of risk for system dynamics data series that appear to be approximately random. DRAM is based on standard risk assessment methods and is simple both to calculate and apply. In this article, the proposed method is applied to determine the risk connected with hypothetical costs of illness stemming from water supply system contamination with Cryptosporidium.
This paper addresses the issue of antibacterial drugs, estrogens and cytostatic drugs’ presence in surface waters and their influence on animals. The ecotoxicity and the impact of three active compounds: ciprofloxacin, 17α-ethinylestradiol and 5-fluorouracil on protozoa, crustaceans and fish were examined. Acute tests (crustaceans’ immobilization test, fish survival test, enzymatic test on Daphnia magna) and chronic tests (growth test on protozoa, reproduction test on crustaceans and juvenile growth test on two species of fish) were performed. Acute toxicity studies revealed diversified species - sensitivity to the tested compounds. Crustaceans Artemia salina were the most resistant to all three pharmaceuticals. Fish also demonstrated low sensitivity to ciprofloxacin and 5-fluorouracil (LC(EC)50-96h > 100 mg/l). In the survival tests, the greatest harm in respect to fish and crustaceans was demonstrated by 17α-ethinylestradiol, and in the enzymatic tests - by ciprofloxacin. In all chronic tests, the toxic effects of drugs were proven. Tested compounds limited reproduction of crustaceans and growth of protozoa and fry. The risk assessment, conducted on the basis of the PEC/PNEC quotient, showed a significant risk in relation to aquatic animals caused by the presence of 17α-ethinylestradiol and 5-fluorouracil in concentrations detected in surface waters.
Disorders of the heart and blood vessels are the leading cause of health problems and death. Early detection of them is extremely valuable as it can prevent serious incidents (e.g. heart attack, stroke) and associated complications. This requires extending the typical mobile monitoring methods (e.g. Holter ECG, tele-ECG) by introduction of integrated, multiparametric solutions for continuous monitoring of the cardiovascular system. In this paper we propose the wearable system that integrates measurements of cardiac data with actual estimation of the cardiovascular risk level. It consists of two wirelessly connected devices, one designed in the form of a necklace, the another one in the form of a bracelet (wrist watch). These devices enable continuous measurement of electrocardiographic, plethysmographic (impedance-based and optical-based) and accelerometric signals. Collected signals and calculated parameters indicate the electrical and mechanical state of the heart and are processed to estimate a risk level. Depending on the risk level an appropriate alert is triggered and transmitted to predefined users (e.g. emergency departments, the family doctor, etc.).
Taking the importance of time and risk into account has a significant impact on the value of investment projects. Investments in the energy sector are long-term projects and, as such, are burdened with uncertainty associated with the long-term freezing of capital and obtaining the expected return. In the power industry, this uncertainty is increased by factors specific to the sector, including in particular changes in the political and legal environment and the rapid technological development. In the case of discounted cash flow analysis (DCF), commonly used for assessing the economic efficiency of investments, the only parameter expressing investor uncertainty regarding investment opportunities is the discount rate, which increases with the increasing risk of the project. It determines the value of the current project, thus becoming an important criterion affecting investors’ decisions. For this reason, it is of great importance for the assessment of investment effectiveness. This rate, usually in the form of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), generally includes two elements: the cost of equity capital and borrowed capital. Due to the fluctuant relationship between these two parameters in project financing, performing a WACC analysis in order to compare the risks associated with the different technologies is not completely justified. A good solution to the problem is to use the cost of equity. This article focuses on the analysis of this cost as a measure of risk related to energy investments in the United States, Europe and worldwide.
Overseas mining investment generally faces considerable risk due to a variety of complex risk factors. Therefore, indexes are often based on conditions of uncertainty and cannot be fully quantified. Guided by set pair analysis (SPA) theory, this study constructs a risk evaluation index system based on an analysis of the risk factors of overseas mining investment and determines the weights of factors using entropy weighting methods. In addition, this study constructs an identity-discrepancycontrary risk assessment model based on the 5-element connection number. Both the certainty and uncertainty of the various risks are treated uniformly in this model and it is possible to mathematically describe and quantitatively express complex system decisions to evaluate projects. Overseas mining investment risk and its changing trends are synthetically evaluated by calculating the adjacent connection number and analyzing the set pair potential. Using an actual overseas mining investment project as an example, the risk of overseas mining investment can be separated into five categories according to the risk field, and then the evaluation model is quantified and specific risk assessment results are obtained. Compared to the field investigation, the practicability and effectiveness of the evaluation method are illustrated. This new model combines static and dynamic factors and qualitative and quantitative information, which improves the reliability and accuracy of risk evaluation. Furthermore, this evaluation method can also be applied to other similar evaluations and has a certain scalability.
The article summarizes panel discussions led at the Polish Scientific Networks conference. It covers the topics of social and (un)social innovations, their sources, and applications, as well as the new approaches to the concept of the wisdom of the crowds (as opposed to swarm mentality). The article draws on academic research on trust and distrust, declining reliance on formal expertise and a turn against the science, and posttruth society phenomenon. The article concludes with observations about risk aversion in different cultures, to suggest some practical solutions in education programs, needed to address the challenges of the future.
In the over 150 years of hydrocarbon history, the year 2017 will be one of the many similar. However, it will be a breakthrough year for liquefied natural gas. In Asia, China grew to become the leader of import growth, becoming the second world importer, overtaking even South Korea and chasing Japan. The Panama Canal for LNG trade and the “Northern Passage” was opened, so that Russian LNG supplies appeared in Europe. The year 2017 was marked by a dramatic shortening of the length of long-term concluded contracts, their shorter tenure and reduction of volumes – that is, it was another period of market commoditization of this energy resource. The article describes the current state of LNG production and trade till 2018. It focuses on natural gas production in the United States, Qatar, Australia, Russia as countries that can produce and supply LNG to the European Union. The issue of prices and the contracts terms in 2017 was analyzed in detail. The authors stress that the market is currently characterized by an oversupply and will last at least until mid–2020. Novatek, Total – Yamal-LNG project leaders have put the condensing facility at 5.5 million tons into operation. The Christophe de Margerie oil tanker was the first commercial unit to cross the route to Norway and then further to the UK without icebreakers and set a new record on the North Sea Road. In 2017, the Russian company increased its share in the European gas market from 33.1 to 34.7%. In 2017, Russia and Norway exported record volumes of „tubular” – classic natural gas to Europe (and Turkey), 194 and 122 billion m3 respectively, which is 15 and 9 billion m3 more natural gas than in 2016. The thesis was put forward that Russia would not easily give up its sphere of influence and would do everything and use various mechanisms, not only on the market, that it would simply be more expensive and economically unprofitable than natural gas. It was also emphasized that the pressure of the technically possible and economically viable redirection to European terminals of methane carriers landed in the American LNG, results in Gazprom not having a choice but to adjust its prices. The Americans, but also any other supplier (Australia?) can simply do the same and this awareness alone is enough for Russian gas to be present in Europe at a good price.
In this article, authors analyze methods of the analysis of data integrity, security and availability loss results for business processes. Assessing those results, one can judge the importance of a process in organization; thus, determine which business process requires more attention. The importance of those processes can be determined with Business Impact Analysis (BIA). In article, first phase of BIA is presented – in specific, a construction of Business Impact Category Tables, Loss Levels and process weight calculation methods. A variety of weight calculating methods is presented. Authors also present their proposed method – square sum percentage – as a solution eliminating problems of other weight calculation methods in business impact analysis.
The tests reported in this paper were carried out to evaluate the exposure of soldiers to noise at operator and control positions during military field exercises. The tests were conducted during firing from a T-72 tank, a BWP-1 Infantry Fighting Vehicle, antitank guided missiles, a ZU-23-2K anti-aircraft gun, and a 2S1 GOZDZIK howitzer. The evaluation of noise exposure showed that the limit values of sound pressure level, referred to by both Polish occupational noise protection standards and the Pfander and Dancer hearing damage risk criteria developed for military applications, were repeatedly exceeded at the tested positions. Despite of the use of tank crew headgear, the exposure limit values of sound pressure level were exceeded for the crew members of the T-72 tank, the BWP-1 infantry fighting vehicle, and the 2S1 GOZDZIK howitzer. The results show that exposure of soldiers to noise during military field exercises is a potentially high hearing risk factor.
Red basil (Ocimum basilicum L.) cv. Red Rubin was cultivated in model pot experiment in the soil amended by arsenic, cadmium and lead solutions in stepwise concentrations representing the soil concentration levels of former mining area in the vicinity of Příbram, Czech Republic. The element levels added to the soil reached up to 40 mg Cd, 100 mg As, and 2000 mg Pb per kg of soil. Moreover, essential macro-and microelements as well as cyanidine contents were investigated to assess their potential interactions with the risk elements. The extractable element portions in soils determined at the end of vegetation period differed according to the individual elements. Whereas the plant-available (extractable with 0.11M CH3COOH) content of Cd represented 70-100% of the added Cd, the mobile portion of Pb did not exceed 1%. The risk element content in plants reflected the increasing element contents in soil. The dominant element portions remained in plant roots indicating the limited translocation ability of risk elements to the aboveground biomass of this plant species. Although the risk element contents in amended plants significantly increased, no visible symptoms of phytotoxicity occurred. However, the effect of enhanced risk element contents on the essential element uptake was assessed. Considering inter-element relationships, elevated sulphur levels were seen in amended plants, indicating its possible role of phytochelatin synthesis in the plants. Moreover, the molybdenum contents in plant biomass dropped down with increasing risk element uptake by plants confirming As-Mo and Cd-Mo antagonism. The increasing content of cyanidine in the plant biomass confirmed possible role of anthocyanins in detoxification mechanism of risk element contaminated plants and suggested the importance of anthocyanin pigments for risk element tolerance of plants growing in contaminated areas.
Environmental risks associated with Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn in street dust collected from Baotou, a medium-sized industrial city in a semi-arid area of northwest China, were assessed by using enrichment factor and the potential ecological index. Their spatial distributions and sources in the dust were analyzed on the basis of geostatistical methods and multivariate statistical analysis, respectively. The results indicate that street dust in Baotou has elevated heavy metal concentrations, especially of Co, Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn. Co in the dust was significantly enriched. Cr and Pb were from moderate to significant enrichment. Cu and Zn were from minimal to moderate enrichment, whereas Mn, Ni and V in the dust were from deficient to minimal enrichment. The ecological risk levels of Co and Pb in the dust were moderate to considerable and low to moderate, respectively, whereas those of other heavy metals studied in the dust presented low ecological risk. Different distribution patterns were found among the analyzed heavy metals. Three main sources of these heavy metals were identified. Cr, Mn, Ni and V originated from nature and industrial activities. Cu, Pb and Zn derived mainly from traffic sources, and Co was mainly from construction sources.