The aim of the study is to discuss the relationship of the crude oil price, speculative activity and fundamental factors. An empirical study was conducted with a VEC model. Two cointegrating vectors were identified. The first vector represents the speculative activity. We argue that the number of short non-commercial positions increases with the crude oil stock and price, decreases with the higher number of long non-commercial positions. A positive trend of crude oil prices may be a signal for traders outside the industry to invest in the oil market, especially as access to information could be limited for them. The second vector represents the crude oil price under the fundamental approach. The results support the hypothesis that the crude oil price is dependent on futures trading. The higher is a number of commercial long positions, the greater is the pressure on crude oil price to increase.
In this paper we develop an open-economy endogenous growth model to examine the influence of fiscal policy on the economy in the long run. We allow for public deficit and 5 types of taxes. One of the novel features is separate treatment of interest rates on public and private debt, both of which are linear functions of appropriate debt-to-GDP ratios. Two extreme situations are analyzed: a model of “decentralized economy”, where economic agents do not take into account any externalities, and a model of “benevolent social planner”. We derive the rules of optimal fiscal policy that induce economic agents to internalize all externalities. Theoretical results are illustrated with an empirical analysis for Poland. The optimal values of several fiscal policy instruments for Poland are calculated.
The main goal of this paper is to propose the probabilistic description of cyclical (business) fluctuations. We generalize a fixed deterministic cycle model by incorporating the time-varying amplitude. More specifically, we assume that the mean function of cyclical fluctuations depends on unknown frequencies (related to the lengths of the cyclical fluctuations) in a similar way to the almost periodic mean function in a fixed deterministic cycle, while the assumption concerning constant amplitude is relaxed. We assume that the amplitude associated with a given frequency is time-varying and is a spline function. Finally, using a Bayesian approach and under standard prior assumptions, we obtain the explicit marginal posterior distribution for the vector of frequency parameters. In our empirical analysis, we consider the monthly industrial production in most European countries. Based on the highest marginal data density value, we choose the best model to describe the considered growth cycle. In most cases, data support the model with a time-varying amplitude. In addition, the expectation of the posterior distribution of the deterministic cycle for the considered growth cycles has similar dynamics to cycles extracted by standard bandpass filtration methods.
Good practices in the creation of the Commune Revitalization Program – cooperation between the University of Adam Mickiewicz and the City of Kalisz, The entry of the Revitalization Act on November 18, 2015 enabled municipalities to efficiently plan and conduct the process of moving degraded areas out of the crisis. The Act introduced key regulations affecting the programming of revitalization in Poland. One of the most important instruments is the Municipal Revitalization Program. In order to be able to fully use the potential of this document, we should look for solutions that allow creating the most comprehensive solutions. One of the examples of such activities is cooperation between the university and the local government. Thanks to this combination of practical knowledge of officials with theoretical knowledge of academic experts, we can say that it is a project unique in the country. It is also unique due to the fact that spatial economy students who actively participated in the document creation process were included in the work. The aim of the work is to present the course of the cooperation process of the University of Adam Mickiewicz with the Office during the preparation of the Municipal Revitalization Program for the city of Kalisz and showing the role that the students included in the project played in this project
Experiences of subregional cities in programming of urban renewal. The aim of the article is to analyze and evaluate the experience of selected subregional cities in revitalization programming. At the beginning, the strategic policy of the state towards subregional centers was defined. The guidelines from the National Spatial Development Concept, the National Urban Policy and the Strategy for Responsible Development were pointed out. Then, examine in detail the activities carried out so far in 4 cities, which as a result of the administrative reform in 1999 lost the status of the provincial city, i.e. in Ciechanów, Legnica, Piła and Przemyśl. Current documents have been characterized, in particular, the specificity of areas covered by revitalization has been described. Next, the leading directions of transformations of these areas were presented, resulting from the adopted revitalization policy. This allowed for the formulation of certain generalizations about the specificity of the process of renewal of degraded areas in subregional centers in Poland.
Revitalization programme and spatial and strategic management, Revitalization programme is the set of integrated activities in favour of a local community, space and economy, which are territorially concentrated and performed by revitalization stakeholdres. These activities should be based on revitalizing strategic and spatial management strongly oriented to improvement of life and living conditions of a local community. The aim of the article is to explain the essence of revitalization programme as a scenario of spatial and strategic activities of the borough authorities. The authors proves that spatial management and strategic management are the tools that enable them to conduct the revitalization process. In the study there is a passage devoted to theoretical and operational meaning of the subject issue. Also the example collected from The Local Revitalization Programme of Krobia Borough, which was elaborated in 2017, has been presented.
A village on the outskirts of a city. An analysis and assessment of the west part of Inowrocław for the purposes of spatial planning, The article presents results of a research concerning the landscape of the west part of Uzdrowisko Inowrocław which is characterized by a rural origin and physiognomy, despite being located in the city. The goal of the paper was to identify the resources of that landscape, determine the pace of its transformation, its value, and indicate the possible directions of development. The research consisted in a landscape diagnosis concerning physiognomy aspects in various dimensions (composition, panoramic, and planning), taking advantage of methods used in landscape architecture and urban design. The execution allowed to formulate guidelines concerning the protection and formation of the researched landscape. The goal was also to determine the usefulness of the used model of research proceedings in practice, including indicating the possibilities of implementing the identified results in spatial planning on a local scale. The work has a case study character which conclusions may be helpful in analyzing similar areas and their landscapes.
Fortyfication Objects of Prussian Ring Fortresses in Poznań and Wrocław (from XIX–XX Cent.) in Current Spatial Planning Documents – Functioning, Protection, Landscape Shaping, Fortifications are valuable elements of cultural heritage of many Polish cities. Unfortunately, in many cases they are not properly used and protected, although some of them have the status of historical monuments. Potentially, tools for strengthening protection of fortifications are provided by spatial planning system. The research was based on detailed analysis of the Study of the Conditions and Directions of the Spatial Management of a Communes and Local Spatial Management Plans, including the area of ring fortresses in Poznań and Wrocław. In the Study of the Conditions and Directions of the Spatial Management of a Commune of both cities one can find references to the location and use of ring fortifications. The area of fortification objects in Poznan is covered by 9 Local Spatial Management Plans, 5 further plans covering the fortifications are in preparation. The area of ring fortress in Wroclaw were covered by 9 Local Spatial Management Plans. The results of the analysis of the spatial planning documents show that the tools used to protect the fortifications offered by the spatial planning system are not fully exploited. The context and landscape values of the fortifications are ignored in most of the plans. Also one can find in spatial planning documents the lack of attempts to link fortress greenery to the greenery system, and, in the case of Wroclaw, the lack of describing fortification greenery as a valuable asset. In most cases, principals of the fortifications objects protection are not enough detailed.
Self-government districts in the minds of the city residents on the example of selected districts of Cracow, The article demonstrates the problem of perception of auxiliary units of the city by its residents. The history of the creation of self-government districts in Cracow was presented, the results of the survey conducted among the residents of three districts were shown (n=1433) and they were referred to the observations of other authors outlined in the subject literature. The study revealed that the self-government districts, which have been functioning for more than a quarter of a century, are poorly embedded in the consciousness of residents and do not play a significant role in their lives. Most of the respondents were not able to give the name of their own district correctly and did not know its spatial extent. The former administrative divisions and historical settlement units (former villages) were still deeply rooted in their consciousness. Most of the respondents did not take part in public life of the districts, nor did they participate in the initiatives taken at their level.
Formation the local identity in the “thematic” Rural Renewal, The article aims to determine the main conditions for the development of rural thematic areas in the context of Rural Renewal. Against this background, the authors attempt to explain the mechanisms governing the discussed process and their effects. In view of the above, the focus was on presenting mechanisms for the development of processes that lead to the flowering of this idea (an anatomy of success – the case of the village of Sierakowo Sławieńskie) and those that slow down or completely limit this development (anatomy of failure – the case of the village of Lubcza).
Selected issues of immovable monuments in planning documents, The work concerns selected issues of immovable monuments in planning documents of the communes: Bielice, Gryfino, Kołbaskowo, Stare Czarnowo i Widuchowa. The proceedings aimed at comparison of heritage and cultural landscape contents in: studies of conditions and directions of communes spatial development, the register of the National Heritage Board of Poland and the Spatial Development Plan of the Westpomeranian Region. This allowed to show inconcistencies in the aspect of cultural heritage in planning documents and to indicate good practices in the proces of caring for material cultural heritage.
Internalization of external economic effects on urban sprawl affected areas. An example of the Krakow Metropolitan Area, The study is a discussion on economic externalities, with particular emphasis on technological effects. Attention is also paid to the problem of internalization of economic external effects caused by movement (transport) in areas affected by the urban sprawl process. The research was conducted for all communes of the Krakow Metropolitan Area (KOM), as a result of which the value of: directly incurred financial losses and the value of lost time generated by the necessity of commuting and return in the space of KOM were presented.
Integration of transport subsystems in transfer nodes of public transport in Poznań based on city railway stations, Poznań, being one of the strongest urban centers in the country, has a significant zone of impact (functional area). A natural consequence of this development model are significant communication issues caused by dynamic development of the suburban area. The solution of those issues is assumed to be basing the public communication system on a railway junction and, on its basis, creating the Poznań Metropolitan Railway. However, to ensure efficient functioning of such a system the need arises to integrate it with other systems of transport using transfer nodes. The aim of this article is to illustrate the potential of creating a polycentric system of multi-modal transfer nodes, based on existing city railway stations (district stations). The study focuses on the perspective of the passenger and the primary research method is the in-depth interview. This enabled to learn the opinion and identify the needs of passengers who use the facilities which are the subject of this study. The study also concentrated on analyzing thee communication behaviors of passengers and analyzing thee functioning of city stations themselves. Additionally, information was also acquired regarding the approximate destination of the passengers’ travel, which further allowed to specify the hypothetical impact range of individual city stations. Results of the study allowed to develop a range of recommendations intended to optimize the functioning of selected city railway stations, from a technical, as well as organization and management perspective. They have the potential to become a basis for developing a concept of sustainable public transport with a metropolitan reach.