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Abstract

The essay presents an original application of using the coolhunting method to discover new trends in architecture and design. The ability to identify trends is tied in with the possibility of attaining an advantage over the competition with the use of new designs that can become hits on the market, gaining the favor of customers. The term coolhunting can be broadly defined as the pursuit of inspiration and the forecasting of the directions of development. Initially, the term was applied to fashion, but quickly spread to other spheres of activity, like music, the arts, lifestyle and finally, to architecture and design. The essay is a slightly altered and improved rendition of the author's article published in Zastosowania ergonomii. Wybrane kierunki badań ergonomicznych w roku 2014 . (ed. Charytonowicz J.), Publ. Polskie Towarzystwo Ergonomiczne PTErg, o/Wrocław, 2014, p. 289-304. The method outlined therein is the result of research conducted under the author's supervision at the Institute of Architecture and Spatial Planning of the Poznań University of Technology between the years 2012 and 2014.
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Abstract

Autor niniejszego artykułu postanowił zbadać skuteczność wykorzystania metod łączenia oraz selekcji klasyfikatorów w prognozowaniu upadłości przedsiębiorstw w Polsce. Przeprowadzone badanie pozwoliło na porównanie jakości stawianych prognoz przez cztery klasyfikatory indywidualne: liniowa analiza dyskryminacyjna, regresja logistyczna, sztuczna sieć neuronowa oraz las losowy z wynikami dziewięciu metod łączenia oraz selekcji, bazujących na zbiorze powyższych klasyfikatorów. Autor artykułu przeprowadził także analizę wpływu liczby uwzględnianych zmiennych na poprawność klasyfikacji poszczególnych metod.
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Abstract

The article is an attempt to evaluate accuracy of Marx’s predictions and to present some reasons for Marx’s ineffectiveness as a forecaster. The article discusses contemporary research on forecasting, uses the results to Marx, and analyses the dialectic aspect of laws in order to explain forecasting weaknesses of Marx. The author of Capital turns out to be – in P.E. Tetlock’s typology – a ‘hedgehog’, i.e.: a bad forecaster, who uses questionable methods to defend his predictions at all costs.
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Abstract

The never before published paper is one of the last writings of Juliusz Żórawski (1898–1967), professor architect and theoretician of architecture. The notion of limited complexity introduced here relates to individual characteristics of the conceptual abilities of man. Tasks of architecture are based on prognoses, and this brings with it the risk of making errors. The author criticises J. Fourastié’s prognoses related to the Earth’s overpopulation in 3000 AD, which would force building new cities above the ground, contrary to human psychosomatic nature and habitude.
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Abstract

The paper presents the meaning of complexity as a notion in psychology, and its influence on architectural theory in the 1960s, focusing on the notion of optimal complexity. A commentary is presented on the two texts („Network of straight lines” and „Limited complexity”) by professor architect Juliusz Żórawski from 1967, where he has introduced the term of limited complexity in relation to architecture, and where he criticizes excessively far reaching forecasts of future development. Żórawski’s concepts are parallel to those of R. Venturi at that time.
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