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The aim of the article is to present the issue of risk and related management methods, with a particular emphasis on the conditions of investment in energy infrastructure. The work consists of two main parts; the first one is the theoretical analysis of the issue, while the second discusses the application of analysis methods on the example of the investment in an agricultural biogas plant. The article presents the definitions related to the investment risk and its management, with a particular emphasis on the distinction between the risk and uncertainty. In addition, the main risk groups of the energy sector were subjected to an analysis. Then, the basic systematics and the division into particular risk groups were presented and the impact of the diversification of investments in the portfolio on the general level of risk was determined. The sources of uncertainty were discussed with particular attention to the categories of energy investments. The next part of the article presents risk mitigation methods that are part of the integrated risk management process and describes the basic methods supporting the quantification of the risk level and its effects – including the Monte Carlo (MC), Value at risk (VaR), and other methods. Finally, the paper presents the possible application of the methods presented in the theoretical part. The investment in agricultural biogas plant, due to the predictable operation accompanied by an extremely complicated and long-term investment process, was the subject of the analysis. An example of “large drawing analysis” was presented, followed by a Monte Carlo simulation and a VaR value determination. The presented study allows for determining the risk in the case of deviation of financial flows from the assumed values in particular periods and helps in determining the effects of such deviations. The conducted analysis indicates a low investment risk and suggests the ease of similar calculations for other investments.
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Objectives: Relapse is very much associated with the management of disorder during the treatment, but also many other factors could trigger it. The aim of this study was to explore classes and patterns of relapse risk in patients with schizophrenia of Razi Hospital. Methods: Using random sampling techniques, we recruited 300 participants with a diagnosis of schizophrenia in Razi hospital of Tehran (Iran) between January and May 2017 in a cross -sectional survey. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to establish a baseline model of risk profiles and to identify the optimal number of latent classes, and we used ordinal regression to identify factors associated with class membership. Results: Three classes of multiple relapse risk were identified. LCA showed that, overall, 52%, 22% and 26% of participants with schizophrenia were divided into class 1, class 2 and class 3, respectively. Compared to members in the lowest -risk class (reference group), the highest -risk class members had higher odds of being the age of disorder onset under 25 (OR = 1.4; CI: 1.42–2.33). Participants with schizophrenia who were unemployed were more likely to categorize in the highest -risk class than members of the low -risk class (OR = 2.5; CI: 1.44–4.1). Also, female patients were more likely to belong to members of the high -risk class than members of the low -risk class (OR = 2.22; CI: 1.74–7.64). Conclusion: These findings emphasize the importance of having targeted prevention programs for all domains of Age of onset, female and unemployed related. So, current study suggested that interventions should focus on these risk factors. Furthermore, Increasing the Job opportunities for participants with schizophrenia is warranted so as to prevent of schizophrenia disorder.
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One of the main problem of innovative projects in Russian Federation is the need to assess the impact of exogenous shocks on their financing and development. The impact of this type of shock in the period of globalization is sharply increasing. In order to assess the impact of exogenous shocks on innovative projects we create a model with two stages using the innovate project of production of water purification plants. The first stage of it is the construction of a simple model of financial risk, stipulating the conditions when investors will invest in this firm in the absence of negative shocks, their expectations will depend on their own confidence in continuing investment at the next stages. This model shows a positive result. At the second stage we take into account the impact of the negative exogenous shocks on the project, and try to trace a reaction of companies involved in financing innovative projects. The results of the project were negative. The investor in this case as a rule can stop financing and has the risk of losses. In order to prevent this situation we propose to use a real option for a possible refusal to implement an innovative project in the event that the net present value after one year of financing will be negative or very small. To our opinion it is one of the best ways to reduce financial risks during the implementation of innovative projects for investors.
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The aim of the paper is to point out that the Monte Carlo simulation is an easy and flexible approach when it comes to forecasting risk of an asset portfolio. The case study presented in the paper illustrates the problem of forecasting risk arising from a portfolio of receivables denominated in different foreign currencies. Such a problem seems to be close to the real issue for enterprises offering products or services on several foreign markets. The changes in exchange rates are usually not normally distributed and, moreover, they are always interdependent. As shown in the paper, the Monte Carlo simulation allows for forecasting market risk under such circumstances.
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The objective of this work was to generate a series of equations to describe the voltinism of Lobesia botrana in the quarantine area of the main winemaking area of Argentina, Mendoza. To do this we considered an average climate scenario and extrapolated these equations to other winegrowing areas at risk of being invaded. A grid of 4 km2 was used to generate statistics on L. botrana captures and the mean temperature accumulation for the pixel. Four sets of logistic regression were constructed using the percentage of accumulated trap catches/grid/week and the degree-day accumulation above 7°C, from 1st July. By means of a habitat model, an extrapolation of the phenological model generated to other Argentine winemaking areas was evaluated. According to our results, it can be expected that 50% of male adult emergence for the first flight occurs at 248.79 ± 4 degree-days (DD), in the second flight at 860.18 ± 4.1 DD, while in the third and the fourth flights, 1671.34 ± 5.8 DD and 2335.64 ± 4.3 DD, respectively. Subsequent climatic comparison determined that climatic conditions of uncolonized areas of Cuyo Region have a similar suitability index to the quarantine area used to adjust the phenological model. The upper valley of Río Negro and Neuquén are environmentally similar. Valleys of the northwestern region of Argentina showed lower average suitability index and greater variability among SI estimated by the algorithm considered. The combination of two models for the estimation of adult emergence time and potential distribution, can provide greater certainties in decision-making and risk assessment of invasive species.
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The purpose of this article is to identify and assess environmental risks that may have the greatest impact on the future of humanity. They were divided into two basic groups, i.e. for natural processes and resources. In addition, climate change is described as different group. The authors decided, that a holistic approach to this issue is more desirable than dividing it into two above-mentioned groups. The comparison of various threats was possible due to the application of identical assessment criteria, such as: the harmfulness, rate of spread, scope and moment of occurrence of a given group of threats. Each of the listed criteria has been evaluated on a five-point scale, where 1 has the smallest and 5 the largest impact force. The obtained results show the leading importance of natural processes in maintaining the existing Earth system. In addition, the authors point to a greater risk of problems related to renewable resources than non-renewable one. As a result, it can be assumed that the current degradation of natural processes and excessive use of resources is likely to lead to the risk of global disasters.
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This paper presents the innovative activity of enterprises as a process that is risky but necessary for the survival of a company in a competitive market, and as a way to maximize the long-term value for the owners. Risks and benefits were analysed, and the possible sources of added value in innovative projects were identified in the context of the capital market equilibrium and the budgeting of investments. Innovative projects become a source of added value for investors if the financial effects such as changes in the residual cash flow and higher growth rate outweigh the combined impact on the risk generated by two factors: increase of systematic risk and emerging specific risks.
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Hass avocado cultivation in Colombia has grown rapidly in area in recent years. It is being planted in marginal areas, which leads to low yields, and in many cases is related to diseases. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) can offer a view of the potential geographic and environmental distribution of diseases, and thus identify areas with suitable or unsuitable conditions for their development. The aim of the study was to assess current and potential distribution of the major diseases on Hass avocado in Colombia. Areas planted with Hass avocado in Antioquia, Colombia were sampled for diseases including the following pathogens: Phytophthora cinnamomi, Verticillium sp., Lasiodiplodia theobromae, Phytophthora palmivora, Colletotrichum gloeosporioides sensu lato, Pestalotia sp., and Capnodium sp., and one disorder hypoxia-anoxia. These pathogens were selected based on their relevance (incidence-severity) and capacity to cause damage in different tissues of avocado plants. Severity and incidence of each disease were related to environmental information from vegetation indices and topographic variables using maximum entropy modeling approaches (MaxEnt). Models were calibrated only across areas sampled, and then transferred more broadly to areas currently planted, and to potential zones for planting. Combinations of best performance and low omission rates were the basis for model selection. Results show that Hass avocado has been planted in areas highly conducive for many pathogens, particularly for Phytophthora cinnamomi and hypoxia-anoxia disorder. Ecological niche modeling approaches offer an alternative toolset for planning and making assessments that can be incorporated into disease management plans.
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The paper concerns the assessment of blackout hazards in the power systems. On the basis of statistical data from more than one hundred failures in power systems that affected the world in the last fifty years, the analysis was carried out regarding the number of people affected by a blackout, power losses in the system, duration of a failure and its direct causes. The paper also describes the methodology of risk analysis and vulnerability analysis of the extraordinary events occurrence in electrical power systems resulting in failures. The structure of risk analysis was based on the bow tie model, identifying threats, unwanted events, barriers and consequences of a system failure. Moreover, particular attention was drawn to the impact of the power reserve deficit in the Polish Power System in the coming years on the increase in the risk of a blackout failure.
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The model is developed for the intellectualized decision-making support system on financing of cyber security means of transport cloud-based computing infrastructures, given the limited financial resources. The model is based on the use of the theory of multistep games tools. The decision, which gives specialists a chance to effectively assess risks in the financing processes of cyber security means, is found. The model differs from the existing approaches in the decision of bilinear multistep quality games with several terminal surfaces. The decision of bilinear multistep quality games with dependent movements is found. On the basis of the decision for a one-step game, founded by application of the domination method and developed for infinite antagonistic games, the conclusion about risks for players is drawn. The results of a simulation experiment within program implementation of the intellectualized decision-making support system in the field of financing of cyber security means of cloudbased computing infrastructures on transport are described. Confirmed during the simulation experiment, the decision assumes accounting a financial component of cyber defense strategy at any ratios of the parameters, describing financing process.
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The article is devoted to the development of technogenic risk management models and formalization of the process of support in making decision in the sphere of industrial safety. The structural, informative and mathematical models, used to process information in the technological risks management, as well as a formal model of the process of support of making decision in achieving an acceptable level of technical risk are presented and analyzed.
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Zagraniczne inwestycje wydobywcze są narażone na znaczne ryzyko z powodu różnych czynników mających wpływ na taką działalność. Stosowane wskaźniki często zawierają elementy niepewności i nie można ich w pełni skwantyfikować. Kierując się teorią analizy par (set par analysis), badanie to tworzy system indeksu oceny ryzyka oparty na analizie czynników ryzyka zagranicznych inwestycji górniczych i określa wagi czynników z zastosowaniem entropii. Ponadto w artykule przedstawiono model oceny ryzyka związanego z identyfikacją rozbieżności, oparty na powiązaniu pięciu elementów. Zarówno pewność, jak i niepewność różnych ryzyk są traktowane jednolicie w tym modelu i możliwe jest matematyczne opisanie i ilościowe wyrażenie złożonych decyzji systemowych w celu oceny projektów. Ryzyko inwestycji zagranicznych i ich zmieniające się trendy są oceniane syntetycznie poprzez obliczanie sąsiedniego elementu i analizowanie ustalonego potencjału dla tej pary. Przykładem może być faktyczny zagraniczny projekt inwestycyjny dotyczący górnictwa, gdzie ryzyko inwestycji zagranicznych można podzielić na pięć rodzajów zgodnie z rachunkiem ryzyka, a następnie dokonuje się oceny modelu i uzyskuje się konkretne wyniki oceny ryzyka. Na przykładzie przedstawiono aspekty praktyczne i skuteczność tej metody oceny. Ten nowy model łączy czynniki statyczne i dynamiczne oraz informacje jakościowe i ilościowe, co poprawia wiarygodność i dokładność oceny ryzyka. Co więcej, ta metoda oceny może być również zastosowana do innych podobnych zagadnień i ma pewną skalowalność.
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The article summarizes panel discussions led at the Polish Scientific Networks conference. It covers the topics of social and (un)social innovations, their sources, and applications, as well as the new approaches to the concept of the wisdom of the crowds (as opposed to swarm mentality). The article draws on academic research on trust and distrust, declining reliance on formal expertise and a turn against the science, and posttruth society phenomenon. The article concludes with observations about risk aversion in different cultures, to suggest some practical solutions in education programs, needed to address the challenges of the future.
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Rok 2017 w ponad 150-letniej historii węglowodorów będzie jednym z wielu podobnych. Ale dla skroplonego gazu ziemnego będzie rokiem przełomu. W Azji na liderem wzrostu importu stały się Chiny, wychodząc na drugiego światowego importera, wyprzedzając nawet Koreę Południową i mocno rywalizując z Japonią. Otwarto Kanał Panamski dla handlu LNG i „drogę północną” tak, że pojawiły się w Europie dostawy rosyjskiego gazu skroplonego. Rok 2017 stał pod znakiem dramatycznego skracania długości zawartych kontraktów long-term, krótszych ich kadencji i zmniejszania wolumenów – czyli był kolejnym okresem urynkowienia commoditization handlu tym surowcem energetycznym. Artykuł opisuje bieżący stan produkcji i handlu LNG w 2018 roku. Koncentruje się na wydobyciu gazu ziemnego w Stanach Zjednoczonych, Katarze, Australii, Rosji jako krajów mogących produkować i dostarczać LNG do Unii Europejskiej. Szczegółowo przeanalizowano kwestię cen i warunków kontraktów w 2017 r. Autorzy podkreślają, że rynek obecnie cechuje nadpodaż i utrzyma się ona co najmniej do połowy 2020 r. Novatek, Total – liderzy projektu Yamal-LNG – oddali do użytku instalację skraplającą na 5,5 mln Mg/r., a tankowiec Christophe de Margerie był pierwszą komercyjną jednostką, która pokonała trasę do Norwegii, a później dalej do Wielkiej Brytanii bez pomocy lodołamaczy i ustanowiła nowy rekord na Północnej Drodze Morskiej. W 2017 r. rosyjski koncern zwiększył udział w europejskim rynku gazu z 33,1 do 34,7%. Rosja, ale i Norwegia wyeksportowały w 2017 r. do Europy (i Turcji) rekordowe wolumeny „rurowego” – klasycznego gazu ziemnego, odpowiednio 194 i 122 mld m3, czyli o 15 i 9 mld m3 gazu ziemnego więcej niż w 2016 roku. Jeszcze w 2016 r. stawiano tezę, że Rosja łatwo nie odda swojej strefy wpływów i będzie robić wszystko oraz wykorzystywać najróżniejsze mechanizmy, nie tylko rynkowe, by inny niż rosyjski gaz ziemny był po prostu droższy i ekonomicznie mniej opłacalny. Podkreślano również, że presja, jaką wywiera na Rosjanach cały czas technicznie możliwe i ekonomicznie opłacalne przekierowanie do europejskich terminali metanowców wyładowanych amerykańskim LNG powoduje, że Gazprom nie ma wyboru i musi dopasowywać swoje ceny. Amerykanie, ale i każdy inny dostawca (Australia?) po prostu mogą to zrobić i sama ta świadomość po prostu wystarcza, by rosyjski gaz musiał być obecny w Europie w dobrej cenie.
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Because of the value of time, investors are interested in obtaining economic benefits rather early and at a highest return. But some investing opportunities, e.g. mineral projects, require from an investor to freeze their capital for several years. In exchange for this, they expect adequate remuneration for waiting, uncertainty and possible opportunities lost. This compensation is reflected in the level of interest rate they demand. Commonly used approach of project evaluation – the discounted cash flow analysis – uses this interest rate to determine present value of future cash flows. Mining investors should worry about project’s cash flows with greater assiduousness – especially about those arising in first years of the project lifetime. Having regard to the mining industry, this technique views a mineral deposit as complete production project where the base sources of uncertainty are future levels of economic-financial and technical parameters. Some of them are more risky than others – this paper tries to split apart and weigh their importance by the example of Polish hard coal projects at the feasibility study. The work has been performed with the sensitivity analysis of the internal rate of return. Calculations were made using the ‘bare bones’ assumption (on all the equity basis, constant money, after tax, flat price and constant operating costs), which creates a good reference and starting point for comparing other investment alternatives and for future investigations. The first part introduces with the discounting issue; in the following sections the paper presents data and methods used for spinning off risk components from the feasibility-stage discount rate and, in the end, some recommendations are presented.
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The article analyzes the risk factors related to the energy use of alternative fuels from waste. The essence of risk and its impact on economic activity in the area of waste management were discussed. Then, a risk assessment, on the example of waste fractions used for the production of alternative fuel, was carried out. In addition, the benefits for the society and the environment from the processing of alternative fuels for energy purposes, including, among others: reducing the cost of waste disposal, limiting the negative impact on water, soil and air, reducing the amount of waste deposited, acquisition of land; reduction of the greenhouse effect, facilitating the recycling of other fractions, recovery of electricity and heat, and saving conventional energy carriers, were determined. The analysis of risk factors is carried out separately for plants processing waste for alternative fuel production and plants producing energy from this type of fuel. Waste processing plants should pay attention to investment, market (price, interest rate, and currency), business climate, political, and legal risks, as well as weather, seasonal, logistic, technological, and loss of profitability or bankruptcy risks. Similar risks are observed in the case of energy companies, as they operate in the same external environment. Moreover, internal risks may be similar; however, the specific nature of the operation of each enterprise should be taken into account. Energy companies should pay particular attention to the various types of costs that may threaten the stability of operation, especially in the case of regulated energy prices. The risk associated with the inadequate quality of the supplied and stored fuels is important. This risk may disrupt the technological process and reduce the plant’s operational efficiency. Heating plants and combined heat and power plants should also not underestimate the non-catastrophic weather risk, which may lead to a decrease in heat demand and a reduction in business revenues. A comprehensive approach to risk should protect enterprises against possible losses due to various types of threats, including both external and internal threats.
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The article discusses the issues of values and social responsibility of universities. On the one hand, the foundations of functioning of universities, which are created by research and education and the role of universities in formation, are recalled. On the other hand, it was reminded that the heart of universities, their DNA, are academic values, defined primarily in the Magna Charta Universitatum, but also in many other documents, such as the Code of Values of the Jagiellonian University. Hence, universities are increasingly often referred to not only as universities of knowledge, but also as universities of wisdom. Together, they are the basis for the social responsibility of universities. However, they alone are not enough for this social responsibility to materialise. Appropriate behaviour and actions are essential. Because knowledge alone is not everything. Such actions are always necessary, but especially when we find ourselves, as a country, humanity and a planet, in a crisis situation related to the climate disaster, which we are already partially experiencing. After the presentation of the most important current facts related to the climate and environmental crisis, the tasks to be undertaken urgently in this context by universities were presented, from broadly understood education, through convincing politicians to ambitious and quick actions, to intensive work on innovative solutions that can contribute to reducing threats brought by the climate and environmental crisis, pointing out, among others, the initiatives proposed by the newly created network of universities U7.
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